The Chief Risk Officer Forum (CRO), a group of professional risk managers from the insurance industry including Allianz, has launched an updated version of the Emerging Risk Radar (status Oct 2016).
The CRO Forum Emerging Risks Initiative (ERI) was launched in 2005 to raise awareness of major emerging risks relevant to society and the (re)insurance industry. The Emerging Risks Initiative consists of ten members representing Allianz, AXA, Hannover Re, Lloyd's, Munich Re, RSA, Prudential, SCOR, Swiss Re and Zurich Insurance Group.
According to the Risk Radar update - October 2016, the new emerging risks entries since May 2016 are the following:
The permafrost is subject to thawing and to increased human activities, e.g. from mining. Permafrost thawing will release massive quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, while loss of ice cover threatens to expose nuclear waste in Greenland from an old US military base.
Permafrost thawing might release microbes, some of them potentially harmful for humans. Two kind of microbes have already been released during the summer 2016. Ancient microbes that lived originally as far back as 50.000 years ago, and recent such as anthrax and smallpox.
From Uber to AirBnb, the customers are now taking charge, a business model that started out as B2B/B2C is now shifting to C2B –i.e. the customer becoming the entrepreneur. New challenges for risk economy arise from this shift away from classic to new business models in insurance services (e.g. peer-to-peer insurance)
Shifting geopolitical landscape/ war risk
Together with a general relative shift of global economic power from the West to the East, new geopolitical settings and ambitions are increasing the complexity and instability of global power balances. Failure of global governance, and increasing bilateral or multilateral dispute between states increase the risk for trade wars and military conflict, thus destabilizing the world economy and particularly financial markets.