AGCS Trend Compass

A strategic tool to help companies navigate the complex landscape of disruptive technologies and socio-economic trends over the next five to 15 years

AGCS Trend Compass

 

  •  identifies and rates the most relevant future technologies and trends ranging from “AI as a service” to “community sourcing” or “quantum computing”
  • provides in-depth expertise and orientation on key technologies and socio-economic trends that will have a profound impact in the next five to 15 years
  • gives businesses a greater understanding of the emerging risks around new technologies and trends
  • helps AGCS develop innovative risk transfer solutions to mitigate evolving threats 

It is the dawn of the fourth industrial revolution and all industries and sectors confront fundamental changes that will redefine value creation and business models. Disruptive technologies like connectivity, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and advances in orbital science are combining with socio-economic trends such as community sourcing or green mobility to utterly transform business as we know it.

Many of these trends seem poised on the verge of a breakthrough, but which ones are really relevant and will have a lasting impact on business? The AGCS Trend Compass is a new strategic tool to help companies navigate this complex, developing landscape of opportunities and risks over the next five to 15 years.

More than 200 AGCS managers and risk experts identified and ranked 25 important trends in terms of the impact they will have on business in the near future. TrendOne, a market leader in innovation and research, supported the trend scouting project with their unique expertise.

The focus is on technologic, business and socio-economic trends which addresses future opportunities from a technical and customer centered perspective. An interactive version including trend definitions and industry case studies is available here.

Details on the methodology

The AGCS Trend Compass is a new strategic tool to identify the trends that will fundamentally redefine value creation, business models and internal organizations across all industries. The focus is on technologic, business and socio-economic trends which addresses future opportunities of AGCS as well as its clients from a technical and customer centered perspective over the next 5 to 15 years.

Together with the market leading trend research company TrendOne, 25 important trends were identified for the corporate risk and insurance segment. In a survey in the last quarter of 2018, more than 200 AGCS experts and managers from almost all regions and functions rated each trend in regard to trend impact and adoption speed. The results of the survey were interpreted and analyzed during an expert workshop.

“The risk landscape has never been so complex, so interconnected, so fast changing,” says Hartmut Mai, the Chief Regions and Markets Officer at AGCS. “Technology is breeding new threats as well as new business models – which themselves may be threats.”

“The launch of the AGCS Trend Compass gives both our customers and AGCS a greater understanding of the emerging risks around new technologies across all industries and sectors, and helps us to identify solutions to mitigate these threats.”

The Trend Compass assesses trends in six different categories, including Artificial Intelligence, Socio Economy, IT Infrastructure and Cities & Mobility. The key identified trends are: Digital Platforms; Customization; Digital Assistance Systems; Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning/Predictive Services; Real-time Paradigm; Millennial Workforce, Smart Objects; Green Mobility; Autonomous vehicles.

AGCS explores these important trends in a series of articles. The first one examines the rise and importance of digital platforms, which are at the heart of many tech and sharing economy companies whose business models are challenging incumbent businesses across diverse market sectors.

The new AGCS Trend Compass is complementary to the annual Allianz Risk Barometer report. While the Risk Barometer identifies key business risks for companies globally, the focus of the Trend Compass is key tech and socio-economic trends that will redefine business models across all industries going forward.

Annual survey identifying business risks

Technology is breeding new threats as well as business models. Traditional risks such as natural catastrophes continue to challenge while other threats such as cyber, neck-and-neck with business interruption at the top of the Allianz Risk Barometer 2019 for the first time, reputational risk, increasing exposure to intangible assets and volatility and consolidation in the corporate environment evolve daily.

Top 3 global risks in 2019 

  1. Business interruption (37%) - 2018 rank: 1 (42%)
  2. Cyber incidents (37%) - 2018 rank: 2 (40%)
  3. Natural catastrophes (28%) - 2018 rank: 3 (30%)
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